CEA
← ObservatoryL-04COORD · Cross-Domain · GlobalUNCLASSIFIED · OPEN RESEARCHModeled · static parameters

Escalation refuses domain boundaries.

Cross-Domain Escalation Map

Eight interlocked operational domains. An action in one, cyber, space, AI command, nuclear C3, information, financial, autonomous weapons, propagates through structural entanglements that no single ministry, command, or doctrine wholly governs. Select a scenario to trace propagation.

Figures on this layer are illustrative. Latencies, percentages and ratios are model parameters chosen to explore escalation dynamics — not empirical measurements. Markers (≈ illustrative, ▣ structural, § sourced) denote each figure's epistemic status. See methodology for how the model is parameterised.

SCENARIO ·
DOMAIN PROPAGATION MAPactive path · Viasat / KA-SAT 2022
modem firmware wipershared constellationclock synchronization1CYBCyber Operations2ORBSpace Systems3GPSGNSS / PositioningAICAI Command SystemsNC3Nuclear C3INFInformation Domain4FINFinancial InfrastructureAWSAutonomous Weapons
baseline domain entangled / dual-use escalation-prone interpretive layer
SCENARIO INTERPRETATION

Viasat / KA-SAT 2022

Modem-firmware wiper → satellite outage → terrestrial NATO communications + agricultural GNSS-dependent operations.

PROPAGATION CHAIN

1 · CYB
2 · ORB
3 · GPS
4 · FIN
DOMAIN ROSTER
CYB

Cyber Operations

NotPetya, SolarWinds

ORB

Space Systems

Viasat KA-SAT (2022)

GPS

GNSS / Positioning

Black Sea spoofing

AIC

AI Command Systems

Maven · Replicator

NC3

Nuclear C3

1983 false alarm

INF

Information Domain

Hybrid threat doctrine

FIN

Financial Infrastructure

SWIFT incidents

AWS

Autonomous Weapons

Loitering munitions