Where every layer meets a slider.
Live Escalation Simulator
The simulator composes all seven layers into a single interactive surface. Modulate five parameters and observe how escalation risk responds, phase-shifts occur when low attribution confidence meets high automation.
Pre-action certainty about responsible actor.
Share of decision pipeline under autonomous execution.
Contested classification: espionage vs. attack, accident vs. attribution.
Speed at which the adversary's posture demands response.
Confidence in joint attribution and response coordination.
CURRENT POSTURE
attribution_confidence < 40% ∧ automation_level > 70%ambiguity > 60% ∧ tempo > 60%alliance_coherence < 50%automation_level > 80% ∧ tempo > 80%This posture relies on assumptions about adversary restraint that may not hold under tempo pressure.
The simulator is descriptive, not prescriptive. It models the structural interactions between five doctrinal variables that recur across the dataset. Real-world decisions involve additional variables, domestic politics, regime type, prior signaling, technical surprise, that no scalar parameter set can adequately encode.